TOP STORY: Gary Keller shares his vision for 2008

Real Estate at the Crossroads: Choosing to Thrive

Recapping the shift in the real estate market at Family Reunion, Gary Keller urged attendees to seize the current market to their advantage.  Keller explained that the 10-year run-up in real estate that began in the early 1990s, led to an environment in which homes were no longer affordable, lenders were willing to take unreasonable risks and inventory rose to record levels.

This chain of events led to mortgage lenders pulling back, followed by a credit squeeze, increased inventory, dropping prices, rising defaults, slipping consumer confidence and reluctant buyers.

Viewing the market from another angle, Keller observed that since 1981, household incomes have increased by an average of 3.6 percent per year.  During that same time period, U.S. home prices have increased by an average of 4.6 percent per year.

“Affordability is, and always will be, the primary real estate issue,” Keller emphasized.  “As homes become less affordable, the number of qualified buyers declines.  Rising inventories result in an eventual decrease in home prices.

Existing U.S. home sales in 2007 were down by 13 percent over the previous year, and down 20 percent from 2005, when they peaked at 7.1 million. The decrease in new home sales was even more dramatic – down 25 percent from 2006 and a two-year decrease of 37 percent.

NAR’s forecasts for 2007 were overly optimistic by an average of 9.4 percent, while the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) was overly pessimistic by an average of 8.8 percent in 2007. 

Despite last year’s 13 percent decline in U.S. home sales, membership in the National Association of REALTORS®  (NAR) dropped by only 1.4 percent. In the current market, there is approximately half the number of residential real estate sales per agent compared to 10 years ago. Noting that the correlation between home sales and NAR membership has historically been very strong, more competition for fewer available sales is expected to accelerate the trend of agents leaving the business in the near term.

Keller said that for agents who are determined to stand strong and build market share during the shift, opportunities are wide open. The key: “Become a productivity warrior and a market maker; know that there is enough available business for you to achieve your goals; and become the local economist of choice.”